False positive

A false positive is a surveillance alert that turns out to be innocent activity. Manipulation detection operates at very low base rates, which means even an accurate model produces mostly false positives.

compliance and practice · updated 2026-09-08

See also

• Alert — An alert is an automated flag raised by a surveillance system. The overwhelming majority are false positives, so how a firm triage…
• Base rate — The base rate is the underlying frequency of an event in a population. Because manipulation is rare relative to total order flow, …

Terms that refer here

Alert · Base rate

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